Odds and Probability
Odds and probability both describe the likelihood that an outcome is going to happen in NFL matches and betting. Hence, it is crucial for every bettor to understand the importance of the math behind sports betting. As part of our comprehensive NFL betting guide, our duty is to let all know that the sportsbook odds on display never reflect the true probability of a situation occurring. They are either there to help or confuse you.
Mathematics is a very valuable element in NFL betting and sports betting in general. All odds and probability are being calculated by equations. If the odds do reflect the true probability of the result, then you already have the upper hand. But, remember that the sportsbook’s profit is in the odds themselves and the house won’t let you win easily. You can, fortunately, have an edge against the sportsbook if you know how to apply probability statistics in NFL sports betting.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ODDS AND PROBABILITY
Probability represents the likelihood that an event is going to happen, while odds are defined to give the chances in favor of the event and against it. You will encounter these numbers along the way so remember that odds are expressed in the ratio and probability is written in percentage form. Furthermore, sportsbooks express odds differently. This can be Decimal, American, and Fractional formats.
CALCULATING THE PERCENTAGE PROBABILITY IN BETTING
Odds and probability are the variables you need for computing the probability statistics, which will be used to determine your winnings. During the game, remember that the favored team has a higher probability of winning so sportsbooks often give them lower odds, while the underdog has a lower probability of winning so they get higher odds. Knowing how to convert betting odds into percentage probability is the best tool you have for betting as it instantly lets you analyze the potential value of your bet for the underdog and the favored team. Once you know how to convert, it will give you the representation of your betting value and you can decide if the potential result is worth your bitcoins.
The calculation’s central equation is division. The displayed decimal odds, for example, should be used as the divisor of 100.
100 ÷ odds = probability %